Forex News Timeline

23:26 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls eye recovery as short-term momentum turns cautiously optimistic
The AUD/JPY pair was seen trading around the 94.70 zone on Monday ahead of the Asian session, not far from the midpoint of the day’s range.

AUD/JPY trades near the 94.70 area with strong gains ahead of the Asian session.Mixed technical outlook: short-term momentum improves while longer-term pressure persists.Key resistance lies above 95.00; support seen near 93.80 and the 20-day SMA around 93.50.The AUD/JPY pair was seen trading around the 94.70 zone on Monday ahead of the Asian session, not far from the midpoint of the day’s range. The pair posted solid gains, rising more than 1% and recovering from recent weakness, with price action hinting at renewed buyer interest. Technical indicators, however, offer a nuanced view of the pair’s short-term and longer-term dynamics. Momentum indicators are sending mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed sharply into positive territory and now sits above the 50 level, pointing to increasing bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints flat green bars, suggesting a tentative shift in bias toward the upside. Most oscillators remain neutral, underscoring the fragile nature of the recovery. Short-term Simple Moving Averages tilt bullish and currently support the upward move, though the pair still faces resistance from longer-term averages that remain tilted to the downside. A break above the 95.00 psychological level would be key for bulls to consolidate control. On the downside, initial support is seen around 93.80, followed by the 20-day SMA near 93.50, which has served as a pivot in recent sessions. AUD/JPY daily chart

23:00 South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2
South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2

22:55 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Soars and claims 194.50 as JPY plunges
The GBP/JPY rallied on Monday, climbing past the 193.00 and 194.00 figures on an over 200 pip daily gain, as the Japanese Yen remains the laggard in the FX space.

22:41 Australian Dollar supported by tariff hopes, upbeat China and domestic data
The AUD/USD pair edged higher on Monday, with the pair moving closer to the 0.6300 handle after bouncing off last week’s lows around 0.6260.

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The recovery came during the American session amid increased optimism over a potential moderation in upcoming US tariff policy, supportive Chinese measures, and a solid set of Australian PMI data. Despite a still-firm US Dollar, AUD/USD managed to maintain mild gains, although technical indicators point to capped upside, particularly with the pair held below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and momentum readings still in negative territory. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar finds a foothold as risk sentiment improves The Australian Dollar extended gains on Monday, rebounding after four consecutive sessions of losses. The upside was supported by optimism that the US may introduce more moderate reciprocal tariffs on April 2, easing market fears of an outright trade war escalation. Australia’s March preliminary PMIs surprised to the upside with the manufacturing component rising to a 29-month high of 52.6 and the services print hitting a two-month peak at 51.2. The Composite index climbed to 51.3, its strongest reading since August. The continued increase in private sector employment also suggested that February’s dismal labor market report may not reflect a sustained downturn. In China, new policy support measures aimed at boosting household income and domestic consumption added to risk appetite. The improved Chinese outlook bodes well for the Aussie, given Australia’s reliance on commodity exports to its largest trading partner. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained steady following Friday’s PMI reports. While the S&P Global Composite PMI rose, the Manufacturing index unexpectedly declined. Additionally, Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, emphasized persistent inflation uncertainty, noting that rate cuts may come later than previously expected. On the monetary policy front, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of Australia cut by July, with growing odds for a move as early as May. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s next CPI indicator on March 26 will be key for gauging near-term action. AUD/USD technical analysis: Capped recovery as bearish bias persists The pair’s intraday advance faced resistance near the 0.6270 area during Monday’s American session, remaining below the 20-day SMA, which continues to act as an immediate ceiling. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator printed a new red bar, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a modest rise to 46, still stuck in negative territory. These signals underscore that while there is some recovery, upside momentum remains limited. In terms of levels, resistance is seen near 0.6300, which aligns with both a psychological barrier and the aforementioned moving average. If broken, the next resistance zone stands around 0.6340. On the downside, support lies near 0.6250, followed by the March lows around 0.6225. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

21:58 Dow Jones Industrial Average recovers footing on Monday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared recent losses on Monday, climbing back to the 42,500 region as investors hope for more signs that the Trump administration will cave on its own high-tension tariff threats.

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United States (US) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results came in mixed for March as industry sectors grapple with an uneasy trade stance. US equity indexes are broadly higher to kick off the new trading week. The Dow Jones gained around 600 points, adding 1.4% on the day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) rose 100 points, gaining 1.7%, and the NASDAQ tech index rallied 400 points to climb 2.2%.US President Donald Trump hit the ground running on Monday, reiterating his common tariff threats that are slated to kick off April with a wide array of “reciprocal” tariffs. Donald Trump followed his own statements up later in the day, teasing the potential for tariff exemptions as the Trump administration goes for another spin around the now-familiar wheel of tariffs-on, tariffs-off. US Manufacturing PMI survey results sank faster than expected in March as tariff threats take a bite out of the physical production outlook. The Manufacturing PMI for March sank to a three-month low of 49.8, slipping back into economic contraction territory as businesses grow increasingly worried about the economic landscape. The Services PMI came in better than expected, rising to 54.3, it’s own three-month high as services operators expect to be able to fully pass on tariff cost increases to consumers. Stocks news Tesla (TSLA) rallied on Monday, recovering a solid 11.5% to $277 per share as the battered EV maker pares recent losses. It may develop into a dead cat bounce, however: Tesla remains down 37% from the year’s peak near $440. Despite the near-term recovery, Tesla remains steeply overvalued, and the electric car producer is still trading at a P/E ratio of nearly 122.0.Read more stock news: Boeing holds onto gains from last weekDow Jones price forecast Monday’s Dow Jones rally came at the perfect time for equity bulls, sending the major equity index back above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 key handle. The Dow Jones is still stuck trading below the 50-day EMA near 43,000, but the DJIA has recovered nearly 5% from its latest swing low below 40,700. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

21:33 Forex Today: Focus shift to US confidence and German morale
The Greenback extended its recovery to two-week highs near 104.40 following tariff headlines over the weekend, while concerns over a potential US slowdown seem to have mitigated somewhat.

The Greenback extended its recovery to two-week highs near 104.40 following tariff headlines over the weekend, while concerns over a potential US slowdown seem to have mitigated somewhat.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 25: The US Dollar Index (DXY) clinched its four consecutive daily advance, surpassing the 104.00 barrier with certain conviction helped by the marked uptick in US yields across the curve. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge will be the salient event, seconded by New Home Sales, the FHFA’s House Price Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories.EUR/USD remained on the defensive, breaking below the 1.0800 support to hit new three-week lows around 1.0780. Market participants are expected to closely follow the release of Germany’s IFO Business Climate.GBP/USD managed to post decent gains above the 1.2900 barrier backed by firm UK data and despite the solid performance of the Greenback. The CBI Distributive Trades will be the sole release across the Channel.USD/JPY rose strongly to three-week highs past the 150.70 hurdle, up for the third straight day. The BoJ will be at the centre of the debate with the release of its Minutes.AUD/USD set aside four daily declines in a row and briefly managed to surpass the 0.6300 barrier. Investors in Oz will look at the 2025-26 Federal Budget.The return of sanctions against Tehran lifted prices of the WTI past the $69.00 mark per barrel, or three-week highs.Gold prices continued to correct from last week’s all-time high, shedding ground fort the third day in a row albeit finding support around the key $3,000 zone per troy ounce. Silver prices remained almost unchanged near the $33.00 mark per ounce after three daily pullbacks in a row.

21:30 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Clears 150.00 underpinned by US yields surge
The USD/JPY pair surged on Monday and climbed above the 150.00 mark for the first time since early March as tariff fears faded and US Treasury bond yields skyrocketed, pushing the major for over 0.81%.

21:03 Gold price slumps below $3,010 on tariff relief, high US yields
Gold price extended its drop for the third consecutive trading day as sentiment improved on news that reciprocal tariffs would be focused on some United States (US) trading partners.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,002, down 0.67%. Wall Street trades on a positive mood, edging higher. The rise of US Treasury bond yields and broad US Dollar (USD) strength kept Bullion prices from prolonging its rally, with the yellow metal gaining over 13% in the year. An article by Bloomberg showed that the US President Donald Trump administration would target specific countries on April 2, contrary to applying reciprocal tariffs against most countries. Instead, the measures are targeting the so-called Dirty 15 trade partners. According to last year’s data, The Wall Street Journal reported in an article that the US has the most significant goods trade deficits with China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and South Africa. Data-wise, S&P Global revealed that Flash PMIs for the US were mixed, with manufacturing activity contracting, while the services sector strengthened, improving from February’s figures. The divergence highlights ongoing softness in the industrial sector, mainly spurred by tariffs, amid fears of higher prices. Recently, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he supports only one rate cut this year and doesn’t see inflation returning to target until around 2027. Bostic added that inflation is expected to be very bumpy and stated that he doesn’t expect the Fed to be behind the curve. The money market has priced in 62.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities data. Source: Prime Market Terminal Daily digest market movers: Gold bears moved in, pushing prices toward $3,000 Gold prices remain pressured by rising US Treasury yields. The US 10-year T-note yield has surged eight basis points to 4.331%. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield, which correlates inversely to Bullion prices, rise almost 2 bps to 1.980%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.20% up to 104.35. The March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed a sharp deterioration in US factory activity, falling from 52.7 to 49.8, signaling contraction and missing expectations for a 51.7 expansion. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI surged from 51.0 to 54.3, exceeding forecasts of 50.8 and highlighting strong service sector momentum. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retreats but stays firm near $3,000 Gold price uptrend remains in place, though traders are booking profits as XAU/USD drops below $3,010, threatening to clear the $3,000 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the February 24 swing high at $2,956, followed by the $2,900 mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,874. Conversely, if Bullion remains above $3,000, the first resistance would be March’s 21 peaks at $3,047, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at $3,057 and the $3,100 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

20:59 US President Donald Trump teases tariff exemptions on “unavoidable” April 2 tariffs
United States (US) President Donald Trump has hit hyperspeed on his turnaround time on his own tariff threats on Monday.

United States (US) President Donald Trump has hit hyperspeed on his turnaround time on his own tariff threats on Monday. President Trump teased the potential for "a lot" of countries to get exemptions on his own planned tariffs that are slated to come into effect on April 2. The exact details of the Trump administration's planned tariff package remains eternally elusive, but that hasn't stopped President Trump from reiterating both his steadfast dedication to raise US government funding flows from taxing his own constituents, and also expressing a willingness to explore exemptions for any country willing to come to the table.President Trump's new tariff comments come hot off the heels of his own comments made earlier on Monday. Donald Trump specifically highlighted Hyundai's recent announcement to invest heavily in automotive manufacturing within the US. The fact that Hyundai's planned investment is entirely earmarked for expanding the production of electric vehicles, an automotive class the Trump administration is actively trying to curtail, apparently didn't make it to the president's desk in time for his comments. The EV production expansion by Hyundai will also likely draw ire from Donald Trump's pseudo-presidential running mate, Elon Musk, whose electric car company Tesla will face new competition pressures within the US market. Key highlights Hyundai is to build a steel plant in Louisiana, it will create around 1400 jobs. Hyundai investment makes it clear that tariffs work. Hyundai will not have to pay any tariffs. The Hyundai steel plant is part of a larger $21 bln investment in the US. Hyundai is increasing auto manufacturing in Georgia too. Hyundai plant will produce more than 2.7 million metric tons of steel a year. I may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs. I will be announcing additional tariffs over next days. I will announce additional tariffs over the next days on autos, lumber, and chips. Tariffs for doing business with Venezuela will be on top of existing tariffs. Not all tariffs will be included on April 2nd. I will probably announce automobile tariffs over the next few days.

20:25 US Dollar is resilient on Fed caution, strong service sector data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, held its upward momentum on Monday, tallying a four-day recovery.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index trades above 104.00 early Monday.Composite PMI shows accelerating growth in March.Fed’s Bostic warns of lingering economic uncertainty.Greenback is still recovering from recent multi-month lows.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, held its upward momentum on Monday, tallying a four-day recovery. Strong S&P Services PMI as well as caution from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is benefiting the buck. Daily digest market movers: US Dollar rises as economic signals clash with Fed caution S&P Global Composite PMI rose sharply, showing improved economic momentum in March, led by robust service sector growth. Manufacturing PMI disappointed, slipping into contraction territory below 50 and falling short of market expectations. Services PMI exceeded forecasts, offering optimism about consumer demand and economic resilience as it rose to 54. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized ongoing uncertainty, stating that inflation progress may be slower than previously projected. Bostic trimmed his 2025 rate cut expectations, citing persistent price pressure and trade-related risks. On the DXY's daily chart the Fed's sentiment index has significantly rise above hawkish territory which also add momentum to the USD. US trade tensions were flagged as a concern with Bostic noting their potential drag on monetary policy decisions. Technical analysis: DXY shows signs of base building The US Dollar Index has marked a four-day winning streak, though the rally has stalled just below the 104.00 threshold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to climb gradually, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram narrows, indicating reduced bearish momentum. Key resistance lies at 104.20, with additional levels at 104.80 and 105.20, while support remains firm at 103.40, followed by 102.90. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) near 105.00 adds to technical caution and may be interpreted as a sell signal. However, the DXY index appears poised to recover further from its March lows, supported by improving service sector strength. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

20:03 Fed's Bostic only sees one rate cut this year
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic struck a cautious chord on Monday, warning that economic uncertainty will continue to weigh on Fed decision-making as the US's self-styled trade war continues to build pressure within the economy.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic struck a cautious chord on Monday, warning that economic uncertainty will continue to weigh on Fed decision-making as the US's self-styled trade war continues to build pressure within the economy. Bostic also pushed back his own forecasts of when inflation would finally cool to the Fed's 2% target, and trimmed his rate cut expectations for the remainder of 2025. Key highlights There is a lot of uncertainty. We don't really know where the economy is going to go. We won't get back to 2% inflation until early 2027. Families and firms are telling the Fed they don't really know where the economy is heading. I was at two rate cuts this year, now only see one. I am expecting inflation to be very bumpy. The appropriate path for policy has to be pushed back. I am hearing more concern about the path of the economy, but data has not shown that yet. Business contacts think prices will go higher. I question whether consumer sentiment will be a leading indicator of weaker activity. Businesses think price pressures are moving higher, but are also bullish on sales. Labor markets are still tight. Businesses are expecting to pass tariff costs along. Wage pressures are not outsized according to businesses. I am hearing about labor shortages in some sectors that may be linked to tighter immigration. It is unclear if tariffs will be a one-time hit to prices. Historically tariffs have meant a one-time jump in prices, that may be questionable this time. The Fed does not want to move in one direction and then have to undo it, it is better to be more patient. Not jumping to stagflation yet. It is paramount that the Fed return inflation to 2%, if the economy does weaken, we will manage that when it happens. Fed actions may have to be larger once the direction is clear. The current Fed funds rate seems well calibrated, we will have to see whether it needs changing. My preference is to stay at this level of QT for a while before we stop. Slowing down to make sure the Fed does not go too far is appropriate. I would consider selling MBS, but have not had any conversations about it.

19:27 Mexican Peso rallies as tariff fears ease, eyes on Banxico’s decision
The Mexican Peso (MXN) stages a recovery against the US Dollar (USD), appreciating over 0.64% amid relief of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States (US).

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Mexico’s docket hints the economy contracted while the disinflation process continued to evolve, revealed data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 20.09. Over the weekend, Bloomberg revealed that April’s 2 reciprocal tariffs would target specific countries rather than applying duties broadly to all imports. Investors, relieved by the news, drove US equities higher. In Mexico, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March’s first half dipped compared to estimates on a monthly and annual basis. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI stood within Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) target of 3% plus or minus 1% on inflation. Other data revealed that the Mexican economy shrank in January, revealed the INEGI. Given the evolution of the disinflation process and a weakening economy, Banxico is expected to reduce rates on Thursday, with most analysts eyeing a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut. Across the border, S&P Global revealed Flash PMIs for the US, with the data faring mixed, with manufacturing activity contracting, opposite to services, which improved compared to February’s figures. This week, Mexico’s economic docket will feature Trade Balance numbers and Banxico’s interest rate decision. In the US, traders would eye the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso climbs as data fuels Banxico cut The Citi Mexico Expectations Survey showed that most analysts expect interest rates to end at 8% in 2025, down from 8.25% in the previous release. USD/MXN is expected to end at 20.98, down from 21.00 in the last survey. Inflation expectations remained anchored in the high 3% range, while GDP is foreseen to expand by 0.6%, down from 0.8% in the last survey. INEGI revealed that March’s mid-month inflation rose by 0.14% MoM, down from February’s estimates of 0.15% and 0.22%. On an annual basis, YoY rose 3.67%, down from 3.74% and beneath forecasts of 3.75%. Core inflation for the same period stood at 0.24% MoM, as expected, down from 0.27%. In the twelve months to March, it increased by 3.56%, down from 3.63% and below projections of 3.57%. Mexico’s IGAI Economic Activity for January fell 0.1% YoY in January, up from December’s 0.4% contraction. The index decreased by 0.2% monthly, though it improved from a 1.0% plunge. S&P Global revealed that manufacturing activity in the US deteriorated sharply, as depicted by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March, which dipped from 52.7 to 49.8, below estimates for a 51.7 expansion. Contrarily, the S&P Services PMI expanded from 51.0 to 54.3 for the same period, crushing estimates for a 50.8 deceleration. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 64.5 basis points (bps) throughout the year, as revealed by data from the Chicago Board of Trade. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso surges as USD/MXN tumbles below 20.15 USD/MXN remains trendless, but so far, at the time of writing, enjoys a dip as traders wait for Banxico’s decision. Although a rate cut would be bullish for the Greenback, sellers remain in charge, eyeing a test of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.69. To reach that level, they first need to clear the 20.00 psychological figure. On the other hand, if buyers push USD/MXN past the confluence of the 100 and 50-day SMAs near 20.35/39, the next resistance would be the 20.50 mark. Once surpassed, a move towards 20.99 is on the cards. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:17 US President Donald Trump reiterates new-old tariff threats
United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke with reporters in Washington, DC on Monday, re-announcing plans to issue additional tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals "soon".

United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke with reporters in Washington, DC on Monday, re-announcing plans to issue additional tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals "soon". This follows the Trump administration's recent unilateral 25% import tax on all steel and aluminum entering the US. President Trump also took the opportunity to make a new tariff threat, announcing that the US would be imposing an additional 25% tariff on all goods coming to the US from countries that buy Venezuelan Crude Oil products. Never one to miss an opportunity to make a statement, Donald Trump also touched on a wide variety of old and new topics. The Trump team is once again "close" to signing a "rare earths" deal with Ukraine; Trump would like to see the Federal Reserve (Fed) lower interest rates, even as the US economy sputters and inflation concerns re-emerge; Trump expects to unveil a brand-new air traffic system after a series of deadly airplane crashes immediately followed the termination of thousands of FAA workers and air traffic controllers at the beginning of Trump's term. According to both Trump and his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, April 2 remains the hard launch date of wide "reciprocal" tariffs on any country that has a tariff on US goods, with the Trump administration ready to declare foreign VAT taxes as a form of tariff as well. President Trump also noted during his roving speech that companies have been returning their operations to within the US's borders, and that they have all been investing heavily in the US economy. The specific details of which companies are moving their operations to the US and how much they are investing remain elusive. Key highlights Any country that buys oil, or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff to the US, effective April 2nd. The US is putting secondary tariff on the country of Venezuela. Companies are all coming back to the US. Investment numbers are beyond expectations. The CHIPS act was a disaster. Will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals in the very near future. Tariffs will keep US taxes low. Energy prices are coming down. I hope the Fed lowers interest rates. We will get brand new air traffic system. We’re dealing with people in Greenland who want something to happen. Greenland is calling us, we're not calling them. It's important for national security. I was very concerned about the economy six months ago. We inherented a very bad situation. Agreement on rare earths to be signed shortly. Agreement on rare earths just about completed. I will sign soon. We're talking about territory now and talking about power plant ownership.

18:07 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Correction deepens as sellers eye key technical floor
During Monday’s session after the European close, EUR/USD continued to retreat and was last seen moving around the 1.0800 area.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.0800 zone, mildly lower after Monday’s European session.Bearish momentum builds as the pair extends its losing streak to four consecutive sessions.Downside could accelerate toward 1.0730 if sellers break through current support levels.During Monday’s session after the European close, EUR/USD continued to retreat and was last seen moving around the 1.0800 area. The pair remains in a corrective phase after its strong March rally, with technical signals now favoring further downside pressure. The latest price action marks the fourth consecutive daily loss, suggesting that bulls are stepping aside for now. From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined but still remains deep in postivie territory near the 60 level, which signals that the pair may continue correcting until momentum resets. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has begun to print red bars, highlighting a shift in momentum that supports additional downside pressure. The next critical support comes into play around the 1.0730 region, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages converge. A break below that floor could reinforce the bearish case and open the door toward 1.0670. On the flip side, any bullish recovery would likely find initial resistance near 1.0860, followed by the psychological 1.0900 handle. EUR/USD daily chart

17:15 GBP/USD holds gains as mixed PMIs stir tariff jitters, eyes on UK inflation
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trims some of its earlier gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, begins the week on an upbeat mood after Flash PMIs in both sides of the Atlantic, came mixed.

15:57 Silver: A break north of $34-35 to attract more capital inflows – TDS
Macro funds are (finally) waking up to the silversqueeze you can buy into, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Macro funds are (finally) waking up to the silversqueeze you can buy into, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. London liquidity remains severely constrained "Our advanced positioning analytics point to a continued rise in Silver positioning from macro funds last week, lifting their net length towards its highest levels since 2018 with substantial dry-powder still remaining. Speculative interest in Silver has been the missing link for the performance of flat prices, and growing interest over the last two weeks suggests that a break north of $34-35/oz will attract more capital inflows." "This is consistent with the timing for a countdown towards a silversqueeze, with historical precedents and academic research corroborating our view for additional upside convexity over the coming months. London liquidity remains severely constrained, even as dislocations have subsided in gold, as the US continues to pull in metal from the world." "Lease rates remain extremely elevated and even though physical demand remains limited, speculative inflows are finally starting to appear. In most scenarios for prices, we still expect a drift higher in CTA positioning over the coming sessions, but the fireworks will come from additional discretionary trader inflows."

15:51 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI drops to 49.8 in March, Services PMI improves to 54.3
The economic activity in the US' private sector expanded at an accelerating pace in March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.5 (preliminary) from 51.6 in February.

Business activity in the US private sector continued to expand in March.US Dollar Index clings to small daily gains above 104.00.The economic activity in the US' private sector expanded at an accelerating pace in March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.5 (preliminary) from 51.6 in February. In the same period, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.8 from 52.7, falling short of the market expectation of 51.9. On a positive note, the Services PMI climbed to 54.3 from 51. Commenting on the survey's findings, "a welcome upturn in service sector activity in March has helped propel stronger economic growth at the end of the first quarter," noted Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "However, the survey data are indicative of the economy growing at an annualized 1.9% rate in March and just 1.5% over the quarter as a whole, pointing to a slowing of GDP growth compared to the end of 2024," Williamson added. Market reaction The US Dollar Index edged higher with the immediate reaction to PMI data and was last seen rising 0.1% on the day at 104.25.

15:51 Gold: Prices continue to hold north of $3000 – TDS
Macro funds played a role in last week's melt-up in Gold prices, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Macro funds played a role in last week's melt-up in Gold prices, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Recent liquidations are likely related to constrained risk-budgets "Our advanced positioning analytics corroborates our view that macro funds played a role in last week's melt-up in Gold prices, suggesting that recent liquidations likely related to constrained risk-budgets, as opposed to a directional view on Gold." "Considering this cohort's net position still remains at levels broadly consistent with early-2024, and that prices continue to hold north of $3000/oz, we think their repleted warchest will chase the run higher in prices, fueling more FOMO into the yellow metal. It's still 'heads I win, tails you lose', but it's the other side of the coin that is now screaming FOMO."

15:46 United States S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 53.5 in March
United States S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 53.5 in March

15:46 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in March: Actual (49.8)
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in March: Actual (49.8)

15:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.3 above expectations (51.2) in March
United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.3 above expectations (51.2) in March

15:39 GBP gains strongly from upper 1.28s on PMI beats – Scotiabank
UK PMI data for March were mixed. Manufacturing output weakened to 44.6 (from 46.9 and against forecasts for a rise to 47.2), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

UK PMI data for March were mixed. Manufacturing output weakened to 44.6 (from 46.9 and against forecasts for a rise to 47.2), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Technicals look bullish "Services and Composite data strengthened impressively and beat expectations, however. Strength in the service sector in particular suggests the economy may be picking up some renewed momentum after a period of stagnation. UK CPI data mid-week are expected to reflect still slow progress on cooling inflation, reinforcing the cautious pace of BoE easing we are likely to see in the months ahead, however." "GBP gains are developing strongly on the session. A solid rebound from the upper 1.28s has pushed through Friday’s intraday peak after the pound earlier set a minor new low. Price is carving out a bullish outside range reversal, in effect, countering the bearish price action that developed late last week. Look for gains to extend to the low 1.30s. Resistance is 1.3015 and 1.3120."

15:35 EUR rebounds from support around 1.08 – Scotiabank
Stronger than forecast French PMI data across the board plus slightly disappointing German Services and Composite data resulted in some mixed Eurozone PMIs for March—an improvement in Manufacturing and the Composite readings over February but slightly weaker Services, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Stronger than forecast French PMI data across the board plus slightly disappointing German Services and Composite data resulted in some mixed Eurozone PMIs for March—an improvement in Manufacturing and the Composite readings over February but slightly weaker Services, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. European PMIs suggest resilience "The Eurozone economy remains resilient in the face of tariff risks, it would seem. EUR/USD also remains quite resilient, with dips to the low 1.08 area still attracting solid bid interest." "EUR support around 1.08 remains resilient. Minor intraday gains are extending above short-term trend resistance at 1.0850 at writing which may prompt a further push back to the upper 1.08s. Key resistance remains 1.0950/60 ahead of 1.12. Support around 108 protects against a drop back to the low 1.07s."

15:33 CAD remains undervalued – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly firmer on the session but still well within recent trading ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly firmer on the session but still well within recent trading ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Carney calls April 28th election "The USD remains strongly—around two standard deviations—overvalued versus our equilibrium estimate (1.4143), with tariff uncertainty likely accounting for much of the USD’s strength. The USD still looks to be overpriced for the tariff regime that is in place currently and what might yet emerge, especially considering the news that the White House may scale back the scope of the April 2 tariff announcement." "The CAD is unlikely to pick up much ground until tariff risks are clearer. The widely expected election call was made at the weekend, with PM Carney going to the country on April 28th." "Technical signals are leaning modestly USD-bearish after the USD’s failure at 1.44 last Thursday. A clear rejection at the figure leaves spot pushing below 1.4340/50 support this morning which may see USD losses extend to test trend support at 1.4300/10. A clear break below here should see USD losses to the mid-1.42s. Resistance is (firm) at 1.4400/10 and 1.4520/30."

15:30 USD drifts as tariff threat eases slightly – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is mixed to slightly lower overall as FX markets continue to consolidate.

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed to slightly lower overall as FX markets continue to consolidate. Risk appetite has perked up a little amid some signs from the White House that the April tariff announcement will be flexible, perhaps more limited in range and may not include industry-specific levies—at least not for now. It is unclear what will happen with border tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD drifts as White House suggests flexible approach to tariffs "The focus on a (perhaps) more limited range of reciprocal tariffs is good news for the global economy and markets, reflected in the positive start to the week for stocks, but there is a lot of unknowns around this apparent shift, which has nothing at all to do with the slump in the stock markets in the past few weeks, and the situation remains fluid. An announced trip to Greenland by a senior US delegation this week might be a distraction for the news cycle from the shifting tariff focus." "The USD may not benefit too much until tariff risks are clearer. Price trends suggest that USD is consolidating recent losses and the longer the sideways range trade extends, the harder it may be for the USD to recover meaningfully. It stands to reason that if the White House is seeking a reset of the global trade order, a stronger USD might not be part of the solution." "On the charts, the DXY gains remain capped in the low 104 zone and slightly softer intraday price trends suggest some risk of the index drifting back a little more in the session ahead. Support is 103.75 and—major—103.25."

14:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed from previous -0.03 to 0.18 in February
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed from previous -0.03 to 0.18 in February

14:01 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.14%, below expectations (0.22%) in March
Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.14%, below expectations (0.22%) in March

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets expectations (0.24%) in March
Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets expectations (0.24%) in March

13:54 EUR/USD recovers to 1.0850 after mixed European PMIs
The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.0850 at the time of writing on Monday after facing some selling pressure at the end of the previous week, when it briefly broke below the 1.08 big figure level.

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Preliminary PMI data for March from Germany, France and the overall Eurozone comes in mixed. Markets are seeing a sigh of relief at the possible softening stance for reciprocal tariffs.The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.0850 at the time of writing on Monday after facing some selling pressure at the end of the previous week, when it briefly broke below the 1.08 big figure level. Overall, the pair is expected to stay above 1.08 for now after United States (US) officials commented on Monday that the upcoming reciprocal tariffs will rather be targeted by sector and country, not at all simply broad-based as US President Donald Trump had originally announced. Meanwhile, on the economic data front, the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March is being released on Monday. In the old continent, S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) PMIs have been upbeat in France, beating estimates and February's readings in both the manufacturing and services sectors, but they still signal contraction. Meanwhile, results for Germany and the overall Eurozone have been mixed. The focus now shifts to the US S&P Global PMI data at 13:45 GMT. Daily digest market movers: Focus on PMIsEuropean PMI data has already been released: For France, upbeat numbers with the Services component coming in at 46.6, beating the 46.3 expected and the previous reading of 45.3. The Manufacturing sector component jumped to 48.9, coming from 45.8 in February and beating the 46.2 expected. In Germany, the Services sector reading fell to 50.2, missing the 51.4 estimate and below the previous 51.1. The Manufacturing component popped to 48.3, beating the previous 46.5 and above the consensus of 47.7. In the overall Eurozone, Services PMI decreased to 50.4 from 50.6 previously, falling below the 51.0 expected. However, the Manufacturing reading accelerated to 48.7 from 47.6 in February, beating the 48.0 expected. At 12:30 GMT, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February is due. No forecast is available, with the previous reading at -0.03. At 13:45, the US preliminary PMI data for March is due by S&P Global. The Services PMI is expected to marginally tick up to 51.2, coming from 51.0. Manufacturing reading is expected to decline to 51.9 from 52.7. At 19:10 GMT, Vice Chair for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Michael Barr will speak in a moderated discussion on small business lending at an event hosted at Advancing Innovation and Fairness in Small Business Finance, Washington, D.C. Equities are rallying on Monday after the news that the upcoming reciprocal tariffs might be less severe than initially announced. In Europe, all indices are up near 0.5%, while US futures see the Nasdaq lead over 1% ahead of the opening bell. The CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 85.1% chance for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged in the May meeting while there is a slim 14.9% chance for a rate cut. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.289% and is looking for direction after the steep correction from last week. Technical Analysis: A sign on the wall? The EUR/USD pair is stuck in a very tight range on the weekly chart. The fact that EUR/USD closed below the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0854 last week means that a return to 1.10 is not in the cards immediately. On the other hand, the support from the 100-week SMA at 1.0782 and the 55-week SMA at 1.0740 reveal that a turnaround to 1.05 is not set to materialize quickly either. On the upside, 1.1000 is the key level to look out for. Once that level is breached, the pair enters the famous 1.1000-1.1500 range, where it often tends to stay for quite some time. First, of course, the 200-week SMA at 1.0854 needs to be reclaimed. On the downside, the support from the 100-week SMA at 1.0782 and the 55-week SMA at 1.0740 should be enough to support any selling pressure EUR/USD might face. In case it does not hold, 1.0667 and 1.06 are the next targets to the downside. EUR/USD: Weekly Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:26 AUD/USD is consolidating above 0.6258 – BBH
AUD/USD is consolidating above last week’s lows near 0.6258, BBH's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is consolidating above last week’s lows near 0.6258, BBH's FX analysts report. Markets continue to fully price-in the next 25bps cut in July "Australia reported firm preliminary March PMIs. The composite PMI improved to a seven-month high at 51.3 vs. 50.6 in February. Manufacturing surged to a 29-month high at 52.6 vs. 50.4 in February and services rose to a two-month high at 51.2 vs. 50.8 in February." "Importantly, the rate of private sector job creation increased for a third straight month amidst the solid rise in new work. This suggests that Australia’s poor February labor market data may be an outlier rather than a sign of broader weakness. Cash rate futures continue to fully price-in the next 25bps cut in July with 70% odds it will occur at the May meeting."

13:23 USD/JPY is up near technical resistance at 150.00 – BBH
Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming most major currencies and USD/JPY is up near technical resistance at 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming most major currencies and USD/JPY is up near technical resistance at 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report. BoJ is unlikely to tighten the policy by more than is currently priced "Private sector activity in Japan deteriorated in March. The composite PMI fell from a six-month high of 52.0 in February to 48.5 in March, to signal a renewed reduction in business activity. The services PMI fell to a three-year low at 49.5 vs. 53.7 in February and the manufacturing PMI plunged to a multi-year low at 48.5 vs. 52.0 in February." "Meanwhile, Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato cautioned that 'Japan has not overcome deflation'. Kato pointed out that rising prices are still being driven by a weak yen and high commodity costs rather than a virtuous cycle of rising wages and consumer demand." "Bank of Japan (BoJ) is unlikely to tighten the policy by more than is currently priced which is a headwind for JPY. The swaps market continues to imply less than 50bps of rate hikes over the next twelve months."

13:13 Oil: Inability to overcome $72.75 can lead to persistence in decline – Societe Generale
Brent recently revisited the low of last September at $68.70 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

Brent recently revisited the low of last September at $68.70 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Break below $70.00 can highlight possibility of one more down leg "It is now challenging a multi-month descending trend line at $72.75 which could be an interim resistance. It will be interesting to see if Brent can establish beyond this hurdle; this cross is crucial for confirming extension in ongoing rebound." "Inability to overcome $72.75 can lead to persistence in decline. Break below last week low of $70.00 could highlight possibility of one more down leg."

13:07 USD/JPY: Rebound risk in the near term – OCBC
USD/JPY inched higher. Data and BoJ policy may take a back seat for now as the focus shifts to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 2 Apr.

USD/JPY inched higher. Data and BoJ policy may take a back seat for now as the focus shifts to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 2 Apr. Pair was last seen trading at 149.65 levels., OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Slight rebound risk not ruled out in the near term "Earlier, Trump had ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, singling out Japan and South Korea as nations that he believes are taking advantage of the US. We had also flagged that Japan may be at risk of being hit by US reciprocal tariffs as Japanese cars are the top 5 most popular in US. (Japan shipped 1.37mio vehicles to US in 2024, accounting for 28% of Japan’s exports to US)." "Currently, US imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported Japanese cars and this tariff rate may rise, leading to a potential demand hit for Japanese cars. There have been chatters of production adjustments or supply chain shifts in attempt to avert being hit by reciprocal tariff adjustment, but it remains uncertain if this would be useful. In terms of agricultural products, Japan also has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat. The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods that can potentially put a downward pressure on JPY." "Also not forgetting JPY dividend seasonality trends that may weigh on JPY in the near term. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Slight rebound risk not ruled out in the near term but bias to sell rallies. Death cross appears to be in the making (50 cuts 200 DMA to the downside). Resistance at 150, 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high) and 152 (50, 200 DMAs). Support at 148.30, 147 levels (61.8% fibo)."

12:20 GBP: Downside risks arise from budget event – ING
EUR/GBP eased back below 0.840 last week following a modestly hawkish BoE meeting and broader unwinding of EUR longs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/GBP eased back below 0.840 last week following a modestly hawkish BoE meeting and broader unwinding of EUR longs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Upside risks to EUR/GBP extending beyond the recent 0.845 highs "EUR/GBP eased back below 0.840 last week on a modestly hawkish Bank of England meeting and broader unwinding of EUR longs. We are bullish on the pair this week." "Spending cuts should be enough to meet the fiscal rule. However, the gilt market will be on the lookout for any missteps in the very tight room for fiscal manoeuvring, and the bar for a negative reaction either in bonds or a meaningful repricing lower in growth expectations both have the potential of hitting sterling. We see upside risks to EUR/GBP extending beyond the recent 0.845 highs this week." "We also have inflation data in the UK this week, but we don’t expect it to be a major market-moving event, with services CPI expected to have remained close to 5% in February."

12:20 FXS Fed Sentiment Index recovers into hawkish territory following March meeting
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% after the march 18-19 policy meeting.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index rises into hawkish territory above 100.Fed left the policy rate unchanged following the March policy meeting.Markets see a less-than-20% probability of a Fed rate cut in May.The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% after the march 18-19 policy meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers were still projecting a total of 50 basis points (bps) reduction in the interest rate in 2025. While speaking in the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank will not be in a hurry to move on rate cuts, adding that they can maintain policy restraint for longer if the economy remains strong. Related news US Dollar Forecast: Inflation, tariffs and the cautious Fed Fed's Waller: Fed has tools available to mitigate unanticipated market disturbances Fed's Williams: Current modestly restrictive monetary policy entirely appropriate Commenting on the policy outlook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that the Fed needs to be a steady hand and take the long view on the economy. Similarly, NY Fed President John Williams noted that there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, adding that they are not in a hurry to make the next monetary policy decision. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in May. Meanwhile, FXStreet (FXS) Fed Sentiment Index rose above 110 after dipping below 100 just before the Fed's blackout period started, highlighting a hawkish tilt in the Fed's overall language. This coincided with a three-day recovery in the US Dollar (USD) Index. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

12:09 DXY: Rebound risk remains likely in the interim – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) inched higher as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff deadline draws nearer.

US Dollar (USD) inched higher as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff deadline draws nearer. Officials said that Trump will announce widespread reciprocal tariffs on nations or blocs but is set to exclude some. DXY was last at 104 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD may continue to be better bid in the near term "As of now, Trump administration is not planning separate, sectoral-specific tariffs to be unveiled at the same event. It was also mentioned that only countries that don’t have tariffs on the US, and with whom the US has a trade surplus, will not be tariffed under the reciprocal plan. So likely, Australia, Singapore, HK and perhaps, UK may be excluded while China, EU, South Korea, Japan, India and Thailand are amongst some of the countries that may be hit (for having tariff on US goods and a trade surplus with US)." "Tariff imposition can undermine sentiments and lead to spikes in the USD. The likes of KRW, JPY, CNH, MYR, IDR may be undermined in the near term. In addition, there remains some caution of EM contagion risks. Weekend arrest and subsequent imprisonment of Istanbul’s mayor may continue to weigh on Lira and EM FX today. Tariff war and lingering EM contagion fears can undermine risk sentiment." "USD may continue to be better bid in the near term. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Rebound risk remains likely in the interim. Resistance here at 104 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 104.40 and 105 levels (50% fibo, 21, 200 DMAs). Support at 103.10, 102.50 levels (76.4% fibo)."

11:57 USD: Data obstacles this week – ING
The US Dollar (USD) found some support last week after a very weak start to March.

The US Dollar (USD) found some support last week after a very weak start to March. The Federal Reserve's reiterated cautiousness on rate cuts has likely prevented further bearish sentiment from accumulating on the dollar. Reports suggesting some countries may be exempt from the first protectionism wave are helping risk sentiment and are modestly weighing on the dollar this morning, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. DXY can potentially restabilise around 104 "At the same time, there are key data hurdles on the path to the dollar’s re-appreciation. As things stand now, consumer confidence is probably the single most important input for FX, so tomorrow’s Conference Board survey results are the key event of the week. Our call is 93, close to consensus, but activity indicators have substantially undershot expectations of late, so we still see the release as mostly a downside risk for USD. Later in the week, we’ll also look at core PCE for February, which is expected at 0.3% month-on-month. That should not tilt the balance in any specific direction when it comes to Fed expectations but can be read as a mildly hawkish signal and dollar positive." "Russia-Ukraine (indirect) peace talks will also remain on investors’ radars. The latest developments suggest some improvement but provide no clear indication that an immediate ceasefire is on the cards. Market optimism on that, which showed through some European FX underperformance, risks being scaled a bit further unless there is tangible progress in this week’s talks." "We retain a bullish bias on the dollar for the coming weeks. But short-term noise remains likely, and the dollar may soften in the first half of this week on some soft PMIs (today) and consumer confidence disappointment (tomorrow) before recovering into the PCE release on Friday, with DXY potentially restabilising around 104."

11:40 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback on the day – OCBC
Euro (EUR) fell for a 3rd consecutive session. EUR was last seen trading at 1.0834 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) fell for a 3rd consecutive session. EUR was last seen trading at 1.0834 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim "The German/European spending plans and hopes of a Ukraine peace deal are positive catalysts for EUR but given the sharp runup in EUR, and ahead of reciprocal tariff risks on 2 Apr, we continue to caution for risk of near-term pullback. To add, TRY sell-off may also have spillover effects on EUR, given some exposure of European banks to Turkish borrowers (about EUR100bn)." "On tariffs, it remains uncertain in terms of timing on whether the 25% tariff on European auto and other products or the 200% tariff on European alcohol will be effective soon. Confirmation of the tariffs may see EUR dip, but the pullback may not translate into a larger decline. Instead, it may even be seen as a chance to buy dips, considering the emergence of new positive factors: potential Ukraine peace deal, expectations of defence spending and chance that ECB easing may slow." "Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim. That said bullish crossovers observed: 21 cut 200 DMA to the upside while 50 cuts 100 DMA to the upside. Bias to buy dips. Support here at 1.08, 1.0700/20 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of Oct high to Jan low). Resistance at 1.0950/70 levels (76.4% fibo, recent high), 1.1020 levels."

11:34 EUR: Squeezing the last bits of fiscal optimism – ING
Our considerations above on somewhat fading optimism on a speedy ceasefire in Ukraine have likely contributed to softer EUR momentum, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Our considerations above on somewhat fading optimism on a speedy ceasefire in Ukraine have likely contributed to softer EUR momentum, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to return above 1.090 by Wednesday "EUR/USD is still around 1% above our estimate for its short-term fair value, as a two-year swap rate gap around -150bp is more consistent with 1.07 than 1.09, and our one-month view on the pair remains bearish. However, this week is quite data-heavy and the euro could squeeze some extra benefit from fiscal optimism." "We have a few European Central Bank speakers to watch this week, but we are quite doubtful that any new guidance will emerge before we see more clarity on the impact of US tariffs." "Our call for this week is a return above 1.090 in EUR/USD by Wednesday followed by some softness towards the back end of the week as markets look past data and build more defensive positions ahead of the 2 April tariff event. We still doubt there is enough bullish thrust to take the pair above 1.10."

11:33 Gold stabilizes as markets brace on reciprocal tariff deadline
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilizes near $3,020 at the time of writing on Monday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines over the weekend.

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Markets hope US President Trump will ease off on tariffs by April 2. Gold is still supported in the $3,000 region, though pressure is building for more downside. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilizes near $3,020 at the time of writing on Monday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines over the weekend. News emerging that the Trump administration will ease off on the broad scope of tariffs being imposed on April 2 brings sighs of relief in markets. Instead, United States (US) President Donald Trump is said to be looking for more specifically targeted tariffs on specific sectors per country or region. This helps ease the fear of broad reciprocal tariffs. The idea behind these tariffs is to get companies to reshore back to the US. However, a 25% tariff is not high enough to make the supply chains of corporations untenable, and the Trump administration would actually need to impose import taxes of perhaps 100% to 200%, as well as offer big government subsidies, to get companies to reshore their manufacturing, Marketwatch reports. Daily digest market movers: Sector movesJohannesburg-based firm Gold Fields said Monday it put forward a non-binding proposal to buy the Perth-based company Gold Road Resources for 3.05 Australian Dollars (AUD) a share in cash on March 7, valuing its equity at 3.3 billion AUD and implying a total enterprise value of 2.4 billion AUD. Gold Road’s board rejected the offer, Bloomberg reports. Chinese metals producer Zijin Mining Group Co. shares rose more than 5% after the company posted a record profit on surging Gold and Copper prices. Heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, coupled with tariffs, are increasing uncertainty, the company said in a statement after net income surged 52% last year. Rising demand for Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), as well as central bank purchases, will push bullion higher this year, Reuters reports. US tariffs due April 2 are poised to be more targeted than the sprawling ones, according to US officials familiar with the matter. Still, traders remain wary with officials in China and Australia warning of widespread shocks to the global economy from US trade policy, Bloomberg reports. Technical Analysis: Not defused yetThe softer comments on tariffs will mean a bit less tailwind for Bullion. Expect to see some selling pressure on Gold, though the tailwind will not fade completely. Tariffs are still to come, and even if they are targeted and per sector, it could still severely impact markets and certain countries as long the full-scale scope is not yet communicated. Regarding technical levels, at the time of writing Gold stabilizes just above the intraday Pivot Point at $3,023. Looking up, the R1 resistance stands at $3,046. Should US President Trump push back on earlier comments from US officials on the scope of the tariffs, for example, the current all-time high at $3,057 could face a new test. On the downside, some red flags are rising as the intraday S1 support stands at $2,998. That means the $3,000 mark is exposed and needs to act on its own as big support. There is no line of defense before it to make sure any downturn is being slowed. Further down, the S2 support comes in at $2,975. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:31 UK Preliminary Services PMI jumps to 53.2 in March vs. 51.2 expected
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly dropped to 44.6 in March from 46.9 in February.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (47.3) in March: Actual (44.6)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (47.3) in March: Actual (44.6)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 53.2, above expectations (51.2) in March
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 53.2, above expectations (51.2) in March

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI increased to 52 in March from previous 50.5
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI increased to 52 in March from previous 50.5

11:26 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:22 United Kingdom: BOE on pause as vote split surprises again – UOB Group
As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) decided to maintain its Bank Rate at 4.75% last Thu (20 Mar).

As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) decided to maintain its Bank Rate at 4.75% last Thu (20 Mar). However, in a deviation from expectations (for a 7-2 split), eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the policy rate unchanged, with only perennial dove Swati Dhingra voting for a 25 bps rate cut to 4.50%, UOB Group's economist Lee Sue Ann notes. MPC to stick to a quarterly pace of cuts "The Bank of England (BOE) left interest rates unchanged last Thu (20 Mar), as expected. What was surprising was the vote split, which saw eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting to keep the policy rate unchanged, with only perennial dove Swati Dhingra voting for a 25 bps rate cut to 4.50%." "Our base case is that the MPC will stick to a quarterly pace of cuts. While the odds for the BOE to cut in May are now lower given the vote split, statement, and minutes, we think a May cut is still in the cards considering the sluggishness of the UK economy." "We will, nonetheless, not be making any changes to our view as we think the BOE may also want to wait for the Spring Statement later this week (26 Mar, 8pm SGT) to make any wholesale changes to its economic assessment."

11:02 US Dollar Index (DXY) slides below 104.00; seems vulnerable to weaken further
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on a three-day-old recovery from a multi-month low and attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week.

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The index remains depressed through the first half of the European session and is currently placed below the 104.00 mark, down around 0.20% for the day. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) less dovish outlook maintained its forecast to deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. Investors, however, have been speculating that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected amid worries about a tariff-driven slowdown in US economic activity. This, in turn, is seen undermining the Greenback. Meanwhile, Reports over the weekend indicated that US President Donald Trump is planning a narrower, more targeted agenda for the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and turns out to be another factor denting demand for the safe-haven buck. That said, a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields could help limit any meaningful downside for the USD. Traders now look forward to the release of the flash US PMIs, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus to the Greenback. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which could offer fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and determine the next leg of a directional move for the Greenback. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 48.7 in March vs. 48 expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector contraction eased, while service sector activity underperformed in March, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Monday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in March, beating 48 forecast.Bloc’s Services PMI dropped to 50.4 in March vs. 51 estimate.EUR/USD keeps the green near 1.0850 after German, Eurozone PMI data. The Eurozone manufacturing sector contraction eased, while service sector activity underperformed in March, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Monday. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 48.7 in March from 47.6 in February, beating the market consensus of 48. The bloc’s Services PMI declined to 50.4 March from 50.6 in February. The data came in below the anticipated 51 reading. The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite arrived at 50.4 in March, following February’s 50.2.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI increased to 50.4 in March from previous 50.2
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI increased to 50.4 in March from previous 50.2

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.4, below expectations (51) in March
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.4, below expectations (51) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48) in March: Actual (48.7)
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48) in March: Actual (48.7)

10:59 Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €1.017B in January from previous €-3.602B
Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €1.017B in January from previous €-3.602B

10:56 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Finds initial resistance at 0.5750 near nine-day EMA
NZD/USD rebounds after four consecutive losing sessions, trading around 0.5730 during European hours on Monday.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI edges higher to 48.3 in March vs. 47.7 expected
The German manufacturing sector activity performed better than expected while the services sector worsened in March, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Monday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.4) in March
Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.4) in March

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47.7) in March: Actual (48.3)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47.7) in March: Actual (48.3)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.9, below expectations (51.2) in March
Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.9, below expectations (51.2) in March

10:26 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI up to 47 in March from previous 45.1
France HCOB Composite PMI up to 47 in March from previous 45.1

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.6, above forecasts (46.3) in March
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.6, above forecasts (46.3) in March

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (46.2) in March: Actual (48.9)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (46.2) in March: Actual (48.9)

10:00 ECB’s Cipollone: Inflation target may be reached sooner than last projections indicated
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said on Monday, “the inflation target may be reached sooner than the last projections indicated.” Additional quotes Key elements strengthen the case for further rate cuts.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said on Monday, “the inflation target may be reached sooner than the last projections indicated.” Additional quotes Key elements strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Current conditions make further policy easing conceivable.

09:55 AUD/JPY rises above 94.00 following PMI data from both countries
AUD/JPY halts its four-day losing streak, trading near 94.20 during early European hours on Monday.

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The currency cross gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens following the release of upbeat preliminary Judo Bank PMI data. Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, while the Services PMI improved to 51.2 from 50.8. The Composite PMI also climbed to 51.3, up from 50.6 previously. The AUD gains further traction amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold interest rates steady in April after cutting borrowing costs for the first time in four years in February. Additionally, optimism surrounding potential Chinese stimulus supports the Australian economy, given the close trade relationship between the two nations. The AUD/JPY cross also benefits from improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Geopolitical tensions have eased, with Ukrainian and US officials meeting in Riyadh on Sunday to discuss peace efforts, while President Trump continues to push for an end to the three-year war. Additionally, the AUD/JPY cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure as weaker-than-expected PMI data offsets the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish stance. Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from February’s six-month high of 53.7, marking its first contraction since October and the sharpest drop in nine months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.3 in March from 49.0 in February, missing expectations of 49.2 and extending its contraction streak to nine consecutive months. The Composite PMI also fell, dropping from 52.0 in February to 48.5 in March. Investors now await preliminary PMI figures for the Eurozone and Germany, due later in the day. Economic Indicator Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Sun Mar 23, 2025 22:00 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 52.6Consensus: -Previous: 50.4Source: S&P Global

09:13 Forex Today: March PMI data to kick start the week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 24: After outperforming its rivals for three consecutive days, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week.

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Later in the day, S&P Global will publish preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.24% -0.21% 0.33% -0.17% -0.27% 0.02% -0.05% EUR 0.24% -0.08% 0.05% 0.11% -0.05% 0.31% 0.23% GBP 0.21% 0.08% 0.52% -0.44% -0.00% 0.39% 0.20% JPY -0.33% -0.05% -0.52% -0.50% -0.63% -0.30% -0.40% CAD 0.17% -0.11% 0.44% 0.50% -0.05% 0.19% 0.12% AUD 0.27% 0.05% 0.00% 0.63% 0.05% 0.37% 0.28% NZD -0.02% -0.31% -0.39% 0.30% -0.19% -0.37% -0.00% CHF 0.05% -0.23% -0.20% 0.40% -0.12% -0.28% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following the sharp decline seen in the first half of March, the USD Index ended the previous week in positive territory, supported by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious outlook on further policy-easing and some upbeat data releases from the US. Early Monday, the USD Index corrects lower and fluctuates at around 104.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures rise between 0.6% and 0.9% in the European morning, highlighting an improving risk mood. According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House is adjusting its approach to tariffs set to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the US. The data from Australia showed on Monday that Judo Bank Composite PMI edged higher to 51.3 in March's flash estimate from 50.6 in February. This reading highlighted that the economic activity in the private sector expanded at a slightly faster pace than it did in the previous month. After posting losses for four consecutive days, AUD/USD gains traction and rises toward 0.6300 in the European morning on Monday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida told the Japanese parliament on Monday that they will adjust the degree of monetary easing by raising the policy rate, if the economic and prices outlooks are to be achieved. In the meantime, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined to 48.3 in March from 49 in February and the Services PMI dropped to 49.5 from 53.7. These figures showed that both sectors dropped into the contraction territory. Despite the selling pressure surrounding the USD, USD/JPY edges higher early Monday and was last seen trading at around 149.70. After losing more than 0.5% in the previous week, EUR/USD corrects higher toward 1.0850 to begin the European session on Monday.GBP/USD registered losses on Thursday and Friday to end the previous week virtually unchanged. The pair clings to modest daily gains and trades slightly below 1.2950 early Monday. Later in the day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a lecture on "Growth in the UK Economy" at the University of Leicester, England. Following the record setting rally seen in the first half of last week, Gold turned south and closed in the red on Thursday and Friday. After settling above $3,000, XAU/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase at around $3,020 on Monday. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

09:10 GBP/USD attracts some buyers to near 1.2950 as traders await US PMI release
The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.2940 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the softer Greenback.

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The Greenback remains under pressure as analysts believe Trump’s aggressive and erratic trade policies could trigger a recession. Trump has declared April 2 to be "Liberation Day" for the US, when he will implement so-called reciprocal tariffs that seek to equalize US tariffs with those charged by trading partners, as well as tariffs on sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, which he has repeatedly stated would be enacted on that day.

The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, keeping the benchmark rate at 4.5%. The decision had been widely anticipated by markets. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but he said rate-setters still believed rates were “on a gradually declining path.” Looking further ahead, we continue to expect 100 bps of BoE cuts for a terminal rate of 3.5% by early 2026,” noted Nomura Bank analysts George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak.

However, the gloomy UK economic picture, along with increased global policy uncertainty and weak confidence, might undermine the GBP. The UK economy remains in the “wait-and-see mode” as it expects the upcoming budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves and contends with the growing risks from US trade policies. Investors will closely monitor the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Wednesday. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

08:24 Ueda speech: Will not rule out the possibility of selling BoJ’s government bond holdings
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank “will not rule out the possibility of selling the BoJ’s government bond holdings.” Earlier in the day, Ueda said that the central bank “will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the 2% inflation target is likely to be achieved.” Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies.

08:08 EUR/GBP edges higher above 0.8350 as traders brace for Eurozone/German PMI data
The EUR/GBP cross gains traction to near 0.8380 during the early European session on Monday.

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The Bundesrat, Germany's second chamber of parliament, on Friday, voted in favor of a massive spending package that is set to pour billions of euros into defense, infrastructure and climate protection. This, in turn, continues to underpin the shared currency in the near term.

The Pound Sterling has declined after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, keeping the central bank’s benchmark rate at 4.5%. The decision had been widely anticipated by markets. The GBP weakens even though the steady interest rate decision seemed slightly hawkish. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but he still thinks the monetary policy is on a “gradually declining path.”

The murky UK economic outlook, along with the elevated global policy uncertainty and weak confidence, could drag the GBP lower. However, investors will take more cues from the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February, which will be published later on Wednesday. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:46 USD/CHF maintains position near 0.8850 ahead of US PMI data
USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near 0.8840 during Asian hours on Monday.

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The pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its daily losses, supported by rising Treasury yields amid a hawkish tone surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted, “Labor market conditions are solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2% longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated.” The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, continues to rise, hovering around 104.10. Meanwhile, yields on US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds stand at 3.97% and 4.28%, respectively. However, the USD faced some pressure amid concerns over a potential US economic slowdown, driven by trade policies under President Trump. Investors now await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global PMI data for March, set for release later in the North American session. The Swiss Franc (CHF) may be under downward pressure due to improved risk sentiment, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. This shift follows reports that the White House is adjusting its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have eased, with Ukrainian and US officials meeting in Riyadh on Sunday to discuss peace efforts, while President Trump continues to advocate for an end to the three-year war. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key policy rate to 0.25% on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2022. Although the move was widely anticipated, the SNB refrained from committing to a specific policy path. Policymakers emphasized that lower borrowing costs are necessary to align monetary conditions with subdued inflationary pressure. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:09 FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0700 1.3b 1.0775 1.5b 1.0800 1b 1.0850 1.4b 1.0925 1.3b USD/JPY: USD amounts 149.10 948m 150.00 916m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8730 743m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6365 572m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4230 526m

07:02 Gold price remains depressed amid positive risk tone; $3,000 holds the key
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce from levels just below the $3,000 psychological mark and kicks off the new week on a weaker note.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce from levels just below the $3,000 psychological mark and kicks off the new week on a weaker note. The global risk sentiment gets a minor lift in reaction to reports that US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs would be narrower and less strict than initially feared. This helps ease concerns about their impact on the global economy, which boosts investors' confidence and weighs on the safe-haven precious metal for the third successive day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) preserves last week's modest recovery gains from a multi-month trough and turns out to be another factor undermining demand for the Gold price. However, expectations that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon hold back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets. This, along with geopolitical risks, should act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal and help limit any meaningful corrective slide. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls turn cautious amid upbeat market mood, recent USD recovery Reports over the weekend indicated that US President Donald Trump is planning a narrower, more targeted agenda for the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This, in turn, boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and undermines the safe-haven Gold price at the start of a new week. Delegations from the US have been holding talks with Ukrainian officials as part of peace negotiations and will meet Russian officials on Monday for further talks. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month agreed on a 30-day pause on Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. The US Dollar held steady near a one-and-half-week high touched on Friday in the wake of the Federal Reserve's less dovish outlook, maintaining its forecast to deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. This turns out to be another factor weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that tariffs are likely to dampen economic growth. Moreover, traders still see the US central bank lowering borrowing costs at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings, which keeps a lid on the USD and could support the XAU/USD pair. Israel continues with its heavy strikes in Gaza and bombs the largest hospital in the southern region, killing Hamas leader Ismail Barhoum. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Sunday, though it was successfully intercepted by Israel's air defense. Furthermore, the US military conducted fresh airstrikes on Yemen’s northern province of Saada. Moreover, Houthis claimed to have launched fresh attacks on an aircraft carrier in the Red Sea and the Ben Gurion airport in central Israel, raising the risk of a further escalation of Middle East tensions. Traders on Monday will look to the release of flash global PMIs, which would provide fresh insight into the global economic health and provide some impetus to the commodity. The focus, however, will remain on the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Gold price needs to find acceptance below the $3,000 mark to support prospects for any meaningful corrective fall From a technical perspective, any subsequent slide might continue to attract some buyers near the $3,000 mark. The said handle should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,982-2,978 region. The corrective fall could extend further towards the $2,956-2,954 resistance breakpoint, now turned support. On the flip side, the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 zone touched last week, could act as an immediate hurdle. Given that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has trended lower from the overbought territory, some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:00 Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.9, below expectations (0.95) in February
Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.9, below expectations (0.95) in February

07:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.6 in March
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.6 in March

07:00 India HSBC Services PMI down to 57.7 in March from previous 59
India HSBC Services PMI down to 57.7 in March from previous 59

07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.6 in March from previous 58.8
India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.6 in March from previous 58.8

06:55 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.0800, bullish bias remains
The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.0815, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday.

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Technically, the positive outlook of the EUR/USD pair remains in play as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 59.35, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.

The first upside target for the cross emerges at 1.0955, the high of March 18. Extended gains could see a rally to the 1.1000 psychological level. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1111, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.

On the flip side, the low of March 7 at 1.0775 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. The key contention level is located in the 1.0605-1.0600 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the round figure. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to 1.0418, the low of February 20. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:52 EUR/JPY advances to near 162.00 after release of downbeat Japan’s PMI data
EUR/JPY continues its upward momentum for a second consecutive session, trading near 162.00 during Asian hours on Monday.

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The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as weaker-than-expected Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data offsets a hawkish Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) outlook. Investors are now looking ahead to preliminary PMI figures for the Eurozone and Germany, set for release later in the day. The Jibun Bank Services PMI fell to 49.5 in March from 53.7 in February, which had been a six-month high, according to preliminary data. This marks the first contraction in services activity since October and the sharpest decline in nine months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.3 in March 2025 from 49.0 in February, missing market expectations of 49.2 and extending its contraction streak to nine consecutive months. The Composite PMI also declined, dropping from 52.0 in February to 48.5 in March. Last week, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5%, with board members expressing a cautious stance. However, expectations remain for further rate hikes this year as inflationary pressures and rising wages persist. The AUD/JPY pair strengthened as the Japanese Yen weakened against its counterparts amid improved risk sentiment. This shift comes as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have eased, with Ukrainian and US officials meeting in Riyadh on Sunday to discuss peace efforts. Meanwhile, former President Trump continues to push for an end to the three-year war. In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos stated in an interview with The Sunday Times that Trump’s policies are generating more economic instability than the COVID-19 crisis. Similarly, Jose Luis Escriva told Bloomberg TV on Friday that inflation and economic growth forecasts remain highly uncertain, making future interest rate decisions difficult to predict. Economic Indicator Jibun Bank Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Jibun Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Japan’s services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the services PMI is an important indicator of the overall economic conditions in Japan. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 24, 2025 00:30 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 49.5Consensus: -Previous: 53.7Source: S&P Global

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,335.71 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,352.06 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 97,226.11 per tola from INR 97,416.83 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,335.71 10 Grams 83,357.12 Tola 97,226.11 Troy Ounce 259,269.80 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

05:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $33.00 as US economic concerns rise
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours after three consecutive sessions of losses.

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The rebound is driven by a weaker US Dollar as concerns over a potential US economic slowdown grow due to trade policies under President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, halts its three-day winning streak and trades lower near 104.10. Meanwhile, market participants await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March. However, Silver may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its outlook for two rate cuts later this year, following its decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting. The Fed's stance, aligning with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, helps counterbalance inflation concerns, which may be exacerbated by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Trump. Additionally, Silver prices could come under pressure from safe-haven flows amid improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is expected to drop some industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with strong trade ties to the US. Additionally, geopolitical tensions ease following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday. Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov discussed measures to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure, while US and Russian delegates are set for separate talks on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

05:15 USD/CAD flat lines below mid-1.4300s after Canada's PM calls snap election
The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note amid the emergence of some selling around the US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bearish conviction and has now reversed an Asian session dip to the 1.4325 region.

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Spot prices, however, remain confined in Friday's broader range and currently trade just below mid-1.4300s, nearly unchanged for the day. Even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, investors seem convinced that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown might force the central bank to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, along with a positive risk, fails to assist the safe-haven USD to build on a three-day-old recovery move from a multi-month low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices attract some sellers and move away from a three-week high touched on Friday as traders brace for US President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Adding to this hopes for a positive outcome from Russia-Ukraine peace talks further weigh on the black liquid, which, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and helps limit any meaningful downside for the USD/CAD pair. Furthermore, Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has called for a snap election in the country on April 28. This further holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. That said, last week's failure near the 1.4400 mark makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets. Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMI prints later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members and the broader risk sentiment will drive the USD demand. This, along with Oil price dynamics, should produce short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:04 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian PMI releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades stronger on Monday after closing its strongest in over two months.

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Nonetheless, a rebound in Crude Oil prices amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might weigh on the local currency as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Investors brace for the preliminary reading of India HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, which is due later on Monday. On the US docket, the advanced US S&P Global PMI will be released. Indian Rupee holds positive ground as inflows resume Forex traders said the INR has been gaining as FPIs turned net buyers for the second time during the week with respect to equity and have been buying heavily into debt. “Given the current market dynamics, the USD-INR pair is expected to trade between 86.00 and 86.80 in the near term. However, with the current global headwinds a slight rebound towards the 86.50-86.60 range is expected," said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari. Trump has declared April 2 to be "Liberation Day" for the US, when he will implement so-called reciprocal tariffs that seek to equalize US tariffs with those charged by trading partners, as well as tariffs on sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, which he has repeatedly stated would be enacted on that day. Trump's administration said that it will revoke the temporary legal status of more than half a million migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, per BBC. Those migrants have been warned to leave the country before their permits and deportation shields are cancelled on April 24. Fed policymakers projected two quarter-point cuts later this year, the same median forecast as in December. USD/INR seems fragile, downside risks appear below the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee trades on a firmer note on the day. The bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair looks vulnerable as the price hovers around the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily chart. The pair could resume its downside bias if it decisively crosses below the 100-day EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 32.70, suggesting that further downside looks favorable.

The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at 86.48, the low of February 21. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the 87.00 psychological level. Sustained trading above this level could see a rally to 87.38, the high of March 11.

On the other hand, a breach of the 100-day EMA of 85.97 could drag the pair lower to 85.60, the low of January 6. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:01 WTI remains subdued around $68.00 following ceasefire discussions between Ukraine, US
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive session, trading around $68.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price declines Sunday’s discussions between Ukrainian and US officials could increase Russian Oil supply.Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasizes efforts to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure.Iraq aims to boost Oil production capacity beyond 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive session, trading around $68.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. The drop comes as geopolitical tensions ease following discussions between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday, which may lead to an increase in Russian Oil supply to global markets, according to Reuters. Efforts to negotiate a ceasefire are ongoing, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted measures to protect energy and critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, a US delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday to push for a Black Sea ceasefire and broader de-escalation in Ukraine. Reuters quoted Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, who noted, "Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of US sanctions on Russian Oil pressured prices lower." He added that investors remain cautious, assessing future OPEC+ production trends beyond April. In the Middle East, Iraq is planning to expand its Oil production capacity beyond 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, according to the state news agency. Iraq's Oil ministry undersecretary, Bassem Mohamed Khodeir, stated that the country aims to achieve this goal through Oil exploration and extensive drilling efforts, citing a recent agreement with BP to redevelop four Kirkuk Oil and gas fields. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

04:40 Japanese Yen adds to intraday losses after Japan’s weaker PMI report
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Monday and weakens further in reaction to the weaker flash March Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

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The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations could cap any further gains for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Monday and weakens further in reaction to the weaker flash March Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven JPY. However, the case for further interest rate hikes, bolstered by expectations that strong wage growth could filter into broader inflation trends, might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, the recent narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries should help limit deeper losses for the JPY. Meanwhile, the prospects for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on a three-day-old recovery move from a multi-month low touched last week and might contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMIs for some impetus, though the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the JPY bulls. Japanese Yen is pressured by the upbeat market mood and weaker PMI prints for March According to the preliminary estimates released earlier this Monday, the Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI declined from 49.0 in the previous month to 48.3 in March 2025. This marks the lowest reading since March 2024 and a ninth straight month of contraction. Adding to this, the service sector, which had been a bright spot in Japan’s economy, also lost momentum and contracted for the first time in five months. Furthermore, the overall business outlook slipped to the lowest since August 2020, which is seen weighing on the Japanese Yen. Reports over the weekend indicated that Trump is planning a narrower, more targeted agenda for the so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This fuels hopes for less disruptive Trump tariffs and boosts investors' confidence, further undermining the safe-haven JPY. Results from Japan's annual spring labor negotiations revealed that firms agreed to union demands for strong wage growth for the third straight year. Moreover, inflation in Japan remains above the central bank's 2% target and keeps the door open for more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that the central bank wants to conduct policies before it is too late. Ueda added that achieving a 2% inflation target is important for long-term credibility and the BoJ will keep adjusting the degree of easing if the outlook is to be realized. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing by raising policy rates if the economic and price outlooks are to be achieved. The BoJ will continue to assess economic and financial market situations at home and abroad, he added. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, though maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. This keeps a lid on the recent US Dollar recovery from a multi-month low and should cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMIs, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could provide some impetus. The focus, however, will be on the release of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. USD/JPY could accelerate the positive move once 150.00 is cleared decisively From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair needs to break out above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart – levels just above the 150.00 psychological mark – for bulls to retain short-term control. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, the subsequent move-up might then lift spot prices to the 151.00 mark en route to the monthly peak, around the 151.30 region. On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 149.30 area, might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the 149.00 mark. This is followed by the 148.60-148.55 support, which if broken decisively could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards last week's swing low, around the 148.28-148.15 area en route to the 148.00 mark, and the 147.75 horizontal support. Some follow-through selling could pave the way for a slide towards the 147.30 region before spot prices eventually drop to the 147.00 mark and the 146.55-146.50 area, or the lowest level since early October touched earlier this month. Economic Indicator Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Jibun Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 24, 2025 00:30 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 48.3Consensus: 49.2Previous: 49Source: S&P Global

04:22 BoJ’s Ueda: Will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the 2% inflation target is likely to be achieved.
Speaking in the Japanese parliament on Monday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank “will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the 2% inflation target is likely to be achieved.” Additional quotes Cannot sell long-term JGB holdings immediately; have been gradually tapering long-term JGB holdings now.

04:16 Australian Dollar remains firm following Judo Bank PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after two consecutive days of losses.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar strengthens after the release of upbeat Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index data on Monday.Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in March, while the Services PMI increased to 51.2.The US Dollar faces pressure as concerns grow over a potential economic slowdown driven by Trump’s trade policies.The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after two consecutive days of losses. The AUD/USD pair rises as the AUD finds support following the release of preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, while the Services PMI improved to 51.2 from 50.8. The Composite PMI also increased, reaching 51.3 in March compared to 50.6 previously. The AUD also gains traction as analysts anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep rates unchanged in April after cutting borrowing costs for the first time in four years in February. Furthermore, expectations of Chinese stimulus boost the Australian economy. The AUD/USD pair also benefits from improved risk sentiment as the White House adjusts its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Moreover, geopolitical tensions ease as Ukrainian and US officials meet in Riyadh on Sunday to discuss peace efforts. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to advocate for an end to the three-year war. Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles amid economic concerns The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, pauses its three-day winning streak and is trading lower near 104.00. The Greenback comes under pressure as concerns grow over a potential US economic slowdown, fueled by trade policies under President Trump. Meanwhile, traders await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March. However, the US Dollar gained ground after hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week, who stated, “Labor market conditions are solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2% longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated.” President Trump suggested there could be room for "talk" on trade issues with China and expressed hope for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the near future. Earlier this month, his proposal to strengthen US shipbuilding by imposing steep fees on China-linked vessels entering American ports led to a buildup of US coal inventories and heightened uncertainty in the already struggling agriculture sector. Australia’s Employment Change dropped by 52.8K in February against the 30.5K increase in January (revised from 44K), falling short of the consensus forecast of 30.0K rise. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% in February, aligning with market expectations. China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) central committee and State Council have suggested ambitious plans to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens. This latest initiative aims to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the country’s struggling economy. “We see a gradual recovery in the Australian dollar from the second quarter onward, propelled first by dollar depreciation followed by the lagged impact of China stimulus in the second half of 2025,” said Oliver Levingston, a strategist at Bank of America in Sydney. Last week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The RBA’s February statement signaled a more conservative approach than market expectations, with a strong focus on monitoring US policy decisions and their potential impact on Australia’s inflation outlook. Australian Dollar could test 0.6300 barrier near 50-day EMA The AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6290 on Monday, with technical indicators pointing to a bearish bias as the pair remains within a descending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits slightly below 50, confirming persistent bearish momentum. Immediate support is found at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6240. A break below this level could strengthen the bearish outlook, pushing the AUD/USD pair toward the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6307, closely followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.6311. A breakout above these levels could boost short-term price momentum, with the AUD/USD pair potentially testing the upper boundary of the descending channel at 0.6360. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% -0.07% 0.31% -0.09% -0.18% 0.04% 0.06% EUR 0.08% -0.10% -0.13% 0.03% -0.12% 0.16% 0.18% GBP 0.07% 0.10% 0.39% -0.50% -0.06% 0.26% 0.17% JPY -0.31% 0.13% -0.39% -0.40% -0.52% -0.26% -0.27% CAD 0.09% -0.03% 0.50% 0.40% -0.04% 0.13% 0.15% AUD 0.18% 0.12% 0.06% 0.52% 0.04% 0.29% 0.31% NZD -0.04% -0.16% -0.26% 0.26% -0.13% -0.29% 0.09% CHF -0.06% -0.18% -0.17% 0.27% -0.15% -0.31% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Sun Mar 23, 2025 22:00 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 52.6Consensus: -Previous: 50.4Source: S&P Global

04:05 BoJ’s Uchida: Will continue raising rates if the likelihood of achieving economic, price outlook rises
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida told the Japanese parliament on Monday that “we'll continue to access economic and financial market situations at home and abroad." "If our economic and price outlooks are to be achieved, we will adjust the degree of monetary easing by raising policy rates," he added.

04:00 Japan’s Kato: Will take appropriate action against excessive moves
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday, he “will take appropriate action against excessive moves.” It is “important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals,” he added.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday, he “will take appropriate action against excessive moves.” It is “important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals,” he added.

03:38 NZD/USD gathers strength to near 0.5750 on softer US Dollar
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5745 during the early Asian session on Monday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and Chinese stimulus.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD strengthens to around 0.5745 in Monday’s early Asian session. Concerns over the US economic slowdown weigh on the US dollar and create a tailwind for the pair. The Chinese government announced stimulus plans to boost consumption, supporting the China-proxy Kiwi. The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5745 during the early Asian session on Monday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and Chinese stimulus. Traders await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, which is due later on Monday.

The Greenback remains under selling pressure amid worries over the hit to US economic growth from the US President Donald Trump administration's trade policies. US President Donald Trump has declared April 2 to be "Liberation Day" for the US, when he will implement so-called reciprocal tariffs that seek to equalize US tariffs with those charged by trading partners, as well as tariffs on sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, which he has repeatedly stated would be enacted on that day.

On the Kiwi front, the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) central committee and state council announced ambitious plans to “vigorously boost consumption” by putting up pay and reducing financial burdens in its latest attempt to increase consumer confidence and lift its struggling economy. This, in turn, might boost the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD),a as China is a major trading partner to Australia. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1780 vs. 7.1760 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1780 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1760 and 7.2496 Reuters estimate.

02:50 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,050 amid hopes for Ukraine peace deal
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,025 during the early Asian session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price extends its downside to near $3,025 in Monday’s early Asian session. Hope for a Ukraine peace deal undermines the safe haven assets like Gold. The Fed held rates steady but maintained projections for two cuts, which might cap the downside for Gold. The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,025 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges lower after reaching an all-time high on Thursday amid hopes for a Ukraine peace deal. However, potential rate cuts signaled by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and ongoing economic uncertainties might cap the upside for yellow metal.

On Sunday, Ukrainian and US officials held talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, resuming efforts to end three years of war as President Donald Trump pushes for a ceasefire. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that the discussion over the weekend was “productive and focused.”

Umerov highlighted key points, including proposals to protect energy facilities and critical infrastructure. US and Russian delegates are expected to hold separate talks on Monday. The optimistic developments surrounding Russia and Ukraine's ceasefire dampen the gold demand, a traditional safe-haven currency.

On the other hand, the prospect of further rate reductions might help limit the non-yielding Gold’s losses. The Fed has held interest rates steady at meetings in January and March due to waiting for further progress on disinflation at the time. The US central bank sees a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook. Policymakers projected imply an average of two cuts in 2025, as updated last week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that US President Donald Trump's policies, including import tariffs, may have slowed US economic growth and increased inflation. "Gold is not even acting as a safe-haven asset yet to retail investors because technically we're not in a recession. We are seeing the slowdown in the economy and that could very well create further uncertainty and more desire for safe-haven assets,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

02:50 GBP/USD trades with positive bias around 1.2930 amid modest USD weakness
The GBP/USD pair continues to show some resilience below the 1.2900 round-figure mark and attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday.

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Traders look to flash UK/US PMIs for some impetus ahead of BoE Governor Bailey’s speech.The GBP/USD pair continues to show some resilience below the 1.2900 round-figure mark and attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2930 region, up nearly 0.10% for the day, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to a one-and-half-week low touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and stalls a three-day-old recovery move from a multi-month low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, investors seem convinced that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown might force the central bank to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, along with a positive tone around the US equity futures, seems to undermine the safe-haven Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England's (BoE) relatively hawkish stance. In fact, the UK central bank warned against assumptions for cuts and also increased its forecast for a peak in inflation this year. This suggests that the BoE will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed, which lends additional support to the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, the recent breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since November favors bullish traders. Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs from the UK and the US for some meaningful impetus. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members would drive the USD demand, which, along with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's comments, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain within the striking distance of the highest level since November touched last week and the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for additional gains. Economic Indicator S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Mon Mar 24, 2025 09:30 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 50.5Source: S&P Global

02:43 EUR/USD rises to near 1.0850 ahead of PMI data from both economies
EUR/USD pauses its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 during Asian hours on Monday.

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The US Dollar struggles as Trump's trade policies fuel concerns over a potential economic slowdown. The Euro gains support from improved risk sentiment as the White House adjusts its tariff strategy before the April 2 rollout.EUR/USD pauses its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair gains as concerns over a US economic slowdown, driven by trade policies under President Donald Trump, weigh on the US Dollar (USD). Investors are now focused on the preliminary March Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the United States (US), set for release later in the day. The EUR/USD pair also benefits from improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy before the April 2 implementation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is expected to drop some industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with strong trade ties to the US. Additionally, geopolitical tensions ease following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday. Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov discussed measures to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure, while US and Russian delegates are set for separate talks on Monday, according to Bloomberg. However, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds amid concerns that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could significantly hinder the Eurozone’s economic growth. Last week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde cautioned about downside risks stemming from the Trump-led trade dispute while downplaying fears of persistently high Eurozone inflation. Adding to the uncertainty, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told The Sunday Times that President Trump’s policies are creating more economic instability than during the COVID-19 crisis. Similarly, Jose Luis Escriva stated on Bloomberg TV on Friday that inflation and economic growth forecasts face significant risks in both directions, making future interest rate decisions highly unpredictable. Germany, one of the US's key trading partners, is expected to bear the brunt of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. While the US currently imposes a 2.5% tariff on German car imports compared to the Eurozone’s 10% duty, Trump has threatened to introduce a 25% tariff on foreign automobiles. Germany’s Bundestag lower house of parliament has approved measures to expand borrowing limits, injecting billions of Euros into the economy, which may cushion against potential US tariff impacts. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from previous 53.7
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from previous 53.7

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.2) in March: Actual (48.3)
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.2) in March: Actual (48.3)

02:13 US President Donald Trump to revoke legal status of more than half a million migrants
US President Donald Trump's administration said that it will revoke the temporary legal status of more than half a million migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, per BBC.

01:36 Ukraine, US hold talks in Saudi Arabia in bid for broad ceasefire
Ukrainian and US officials held talks in Riyadh on Sunday, resuming efforts to end three years of war as President Donald Trump pushes for a ceasefire, per Bloomberg.

01:18 AUD/USD gains momentum above 0.6250 on RBA’s cautious tone, China support
The AUD/USD pair gains momentum to near 0.6280 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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Analysts expect the RBA will hold rates steady next month after lowering borrowing costs for the first time in four years in February. Last week, RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance on rate reductions as they want to see further evidence that inflation is under control.

Additionally, fresh stimulus measures from the Chinese government boost the China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner to Australia. The ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) central committee and state council announced ambitious plans to “vigorously boost consumption” by putting up pay and reducing financial burdens in its latest attempt to increase consumer confidence and lift its struggling economy.

“We see a gradual recovery in the Australian dollar from the second quarter onward, propelled first by dollar depreciation followed by the lagged impact of China stimulus in the second half of 2025,” said Oliver Levingston, a strategist at Bank of America in Sydney.

Trade policies by US President Donald Trump raised concerns about the economic slowdown in the US, which has dragged the US Dollar (USD) lower. Investors brace for the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March. However, the surprise upside reading could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the pair. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:44 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.4 to 52.6 in March
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.4 to 52.6 in March

00:43 US President Donald Trump narrows April 2 tariffs
The White House is adjusting its approach to tariffs set to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the United States (US), per the Wall Street Journal.

00:25 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI jumps to 52.6 in March, Services PMI improves to 51.2
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Monday.

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI: 51.2 (March) vs 50.8
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI: 51.2 (March) vs 50.8

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.3 in March from previous 50.6
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.3 in March from previous 50.6

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Forex News Timeline

23:26 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls eye recovery as short-term momentum turns cautiously optimistic The AUD/JPY pair was seen trading around the 94.70 zone on Monday ahead of the Asian session, not far from the midpoint of the day’s range.

23:00 South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2 South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2

22:55 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Soars and claims 194.50 as JPY plunges The GBP/JPY rallied on Monday, climbing past the 193.00 and 194.00 figures on an over 200 pip daily gain, as the Japanese Yen remains the laggard in the FX space.

22:41 Australian Dollar supported by tariff hopes, upbeat China and domestic data The AUD/USD pair edged higher on Monday, with the pair moving closer to the 0.6300 handle after bouncing off last week’s lows around 0.6260.

21:58 Dow Jones Industrial Average recovers footing on Monday The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared recent losses on Monday, climbing back to the 42,500 region as investors hope for more signs that the Trump administration will cave on its own high-tension tariff threats.

21:33 Forex Today: Focus shift to US confidence and German morale The Greenback extended its recovery to two-week highs near 104.40 following tariff headlines over the weekend, while concerns over a potential US slowdown seem to have mitigated somewhat.

21:30 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Clears 150.00 underpinned by US yields surge The USD/JPY pair surged on Monday and climbed above the 150.00 mark for the first time since early March as tariff fears faded and US Treasury bond yields skyrocketed, pushing the major for over 0.81%.

21:03 Gold price slumps below $3,010 on tariff relief, high US yields Gold price extended its drop for the third consecutive trading day as sentiment improved on news that reciprocal tariffs would be focused on some United States (US) trading partners.

20:59 US President Donald Trump teases tariff exemptions on “unavoidable” April 2 tariffs United States (US) President Donald Trump has hit hyperspeed on his turnaround time on his own tariff threats on Monday.

20:25 US Dollar is resilient on Fed caution, strong service sector data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, held its upward momentum on Monday, tallying a four-day recovery.

19:27 Mexican Peso rallies as tariff fears ease, eyes on Banxico’s decision The Mexican Peso (MXN) stages a recovery against the US Dollar (USD), appreciating over 0.64% amid relief of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States (US).

19:17 US President Donald Trump reiterates new-old tariff threats United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke with reporters in Washington, DC on Monday, re-announcing plans to issue additional tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals "soon".

18:07 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Correction deepens as sellers eye key technical floor During Monday’s session after the European close, EUR/USD continued to retreat and was last seen moving around the 1.0800 area.

17:15 GBP/USD holds gains as mixed PMIs stir tariff jitters, eyes on UK inflation The Pound Sterling (GBP) trims some of its earlier gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, begins the week on an upbeat mood after Flash PMIs in both sides of the Atlantic, came mixed.

15:57 Silver: A break north of $34-35 to attract more capital inflows – TDS Macro funds are (finally) waking up to the silversqueeze you can buy into, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

15:51 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI drops to 49.8 in March, Services PMI improves to 54.3 The economic activity in the US' private sector expanded at an accelerating pace in March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.5 (preliminary) from 51.6 in February.

15:51 Gold: Prices continue to hold north of $3000 – TDS Macro funds played a role in last week's melt-up in Gold prices, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

15:46 United States S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 53.5 in March United States S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 53.5 in March

15:46 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in March: Actual (49.8) United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in March: Actual (49.8)

15:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.3 above expectations (51.2) in March United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 54.3 above expectations (51.2) in March

15:39 GBP gains strongly from upper 1.28s on PMI beats – Scotiabank UK PMI data for March were mixed. Manufacturing output weakened to 44.6 (from 46.9 and against forecasts for a rise to 47.2), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:33 CAD remains undervalued – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly firmer on the session but still well within recent trading ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:30 USD drifts as tariff threat eases slightly – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is mixed to slightly lower overall as FX markets continue to consolidate.

14:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed from previous -0.03 to 0.18 in February United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed from previous -0.03 to 0.18 in February

14:01 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.14%, below expectations (0.22%) in March Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.14%, below expectations (0.22%) in March

14:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets expectations (0.24%) in March Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets expectations (0.24%) in March

13:54 EUR/USD recovers to 1.0850 after mixed European PMIs The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.0850 at the time of writing on Monday after facing some selling pressure at the end of the previous week, when it briefly broke below the 1.08 big figure level.

13:26 AUD/USD is consolidating above 0.6258 – BBH AUD/USD is consolidating above last week’s lows near 0.6258, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:23 USD/JPY is up near technical resistance at 150.00 – BBH Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming most major currencies and USD/JPY is up near technical resistance at 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:13 Oil: Inability to overcome $72.75 can lead to persistence in decline – Societe Generale Brent recently revisited the low of last September at $68.70 resulting in a brief rebound, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

13:07 USD/JPY: Rebound risk in the near term – OCBC USD/JPY inched higher. Data and BoJ policy may take a back seat for now as the focus shifts to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 2 Apr.

12:20 GBP: Downside risks arise from budget event – ING EUR/GBP eased back below 0.840 last week following a modestly hawkish BoE meeting and broader unwinding of EUR longs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

12:20 FXS Fed Sentiment Index recovers into hawkish territory following March meeting The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% after the march 18-19 policy meeting.

12:09 DXY: Rebound risk remains likely in the interim – OCBC US Dollar (USD) inched higher as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff deadline draws nearer.

11:57 USD: Data obstacles this week – ING The US Dollar (USD) found some support last week after a very weak start to March.

11:40 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback on the day – OCBC Euro (EUR) fell for a 3rd consecutive session. EUR was last seen trading at 1.0834 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:34 EUR: Squeezing the last bits of fiscal optimism – ING Our considerations above on somewhat fading optimism on a speedy ceasefire in Ukraine have likely contributed to softer EUR momentum, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:33 Gold stabilizes as markets brace on reciprocal tariff deadline Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilizes near $3,020 at the time of writing on Monday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines over the weekend.

11:31 UK Preliminary Services PMI jumps to 53.2 in March vs. 51.2 expected The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly dropped to 44.6 in March from 46.9 in February.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (47.3) in March: Actual (44.6) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (47.3) in March: Actual (44.6)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 53.2, above expectations (51.2) in March United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 53.2, above expectations (51.2) in March

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI increased to 52 in March from previous 50.5 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI increased to 52 in March from previous 50.5

11:26 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:22 United Kingdom: BOE on pause as vote split surprises again – UOB Group As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) decided to maintain its Bank Rate at 4.75% last Thu (20 Mar).

11:02 US Dollar Index (DXY) slides below 104.00; seems vulnerable to weaken further The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on a three-day-old recovery from a multi-month low and attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week.

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 48.7 in March vs. 48 expected The Eurozone manufacturing sector contraction eased, while service sector activity underperformed in March, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Monday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI increased to 50.4 in March from previous 50.2 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI increased to 50.4 in March from previous 50.2

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.4, below expectations (51) in March Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.4, below expectations (51) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48) in March: Actual (48.7) Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48) in March: Actual (48.7)

10:59 Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €1.017B in January from previous €-3.602B Greece Current Account (YoY) up to €1.017B in January from previous €-3.602B

10:56 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Finds initial resistance at 0.5750 near nine-day EMA NZD/USD rebounds after four consecutive losing sessions, trading around 0.5730 during European hours on Monday.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI edges higher to 48.3 in March vs. 47.7 expected The German manufacturing sector activity performed better than expected while the services sector worsened in March, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Monday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.4) in March Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.4) in March

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47.7) in March: Actual (48.3) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47.7) in March: Actual (48.3)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.9, below expectations (51.2) in March Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.9, below expectations (51.2) in March

10:26 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI up to 47 in March from previous 45.1 France HCOB Composite PMI up to 47 in March from previous 45.1

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.6, above forecasts (46.3) in March France HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.6, above forecasts (46.3) in March

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (46.2) in March: Actual (48.9) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (46.2) in March: Actual (48.9)

09:55 AUD/JPY rises above 94.00 following PMI data from both countries AUD/JPY halts its four-day losing streak, trading near 94.20 during early European hours on Monday.

09:13 Forex Today: March PMI data to kick start the week Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 24: After outperforming its rivals for three consecutive days, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week.

09:10 GBP/USD attracts some buyers to near 1.2950 as traders await US PMI release The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.2940 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the softer Greenback.

08:08 EUR/GBP edges higher above 0.8350 as traders brace for Eurozone/German PMI data The EUR/GBP cross gains traction to near 0.8380 during the early European session on Monday.

07:46 USD/CHF maintains position near 0.8850 ahead of US PMI data USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near 0.8840 during Asian hours on Monday.

07:09 FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:02 Gold price remains depressed amid positive risk tone; $3,000 holds the key Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce from levels just below the $3,000 psychological mark and kicks off the new week on a weaker note.

07:00 Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.9, below expectations (0.95) in February Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.9, below expectations (0.95) in February

07:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.6 in March India HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.6 in March

07:00 India HSBC Services PMI down to 57.7 in March from previous 59 India HSBC Services PMI down to 57.7 in March from previous 59

07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.6 in March from previous 58.8 India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.6 in March from previous 58.8

06:55 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.0800, bullish bias remains The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.0815, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday.

06:52 EUR/JPY advances to near 162.00 after release of downbeat Japan’s PMI data EUR/JPY continues its upward momentum for a second consecutive session, trading near 162.00 during Asian hours on Monday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $33.00 as US economic concerns rise Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours after three consecutive sessions of losses.

05:15 USD/CAD flat lines below mid-1.4300s after Canada's PM calls snap election The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note amid the emergence of some selling around the US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bearish conviction and has now reversed an Asian session dip to the 1.4325 region.

05:04 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian PMI releases The Indian Rupee (INR) trades stronger on Monday after closing its strongest in over two months.

05:01 WTI remains subdued around $68.00 following ceasefire discussions between Ukraine, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive session, trading around $68.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

04:40 Japanese Yen adds to intraday losses after Japan’s weaker PMI report The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against its American counterpart for the third consecutive day on Monday and weakens further in reaction to the weaker flash March Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).